Bond Market Review – 2/18/2022

Exit Pandemic – Enter Pandemonium Much of the downside of the pandemic has been reversed – though it’s still hard to understand news and interviews through masks. If you’re still writing the Year of the Ox on your checks, the Chinese Year of the Tiger...

Bond Market Review – 1/31/2022

Déjà vu – all over again From a personal perspective, January 2022 was very much like 2021. I managed to contract Covid in the early days of each month. Much like the first episode, I felt the onset of great fatigue and had to weather out the storm. Though not...

Bond Market Review – 12/31/2021

Pivots and Divots 2021 will end having seen huge pivots in the markets, Fed policy, politics, and economic recovery. The Fed finally capitulated that inflation is more permanent and finally retired the use of ‘transitory.’ They are as hawkish as they’ve been since the...

Bond Market Review – 12/14/2021

Omicronal Rodeo The markets reacted with renewed panic on the news of yet another Covid variant entering the fray. The first few reports we heard said the Omicron variant was very contagious but not very dangerous. Those continue as even follow–up reports said Omicron...

Bond Market Review – 11/19/2021

Show Stoppers, Eve Poppers, and Job Hoppers The FOMC did not disappoint with their November statement. They held on to their favorite ‘T’ word. However, this time they modified the usage a bit in saying that inflation was elevated but “largely reflecting factors that...

Bond Market Review – 11/02/2021

The Tantalus Armada Comic Steven Wright once said: “I have the world’s largest collection of sea shells. I keep it scattered on beaches all over the world. Maybe you’ve seen some of it.” America’s businesses and manufacturers have large inventories as well, but it’s...

Bond Market Review – 10/12/2021

The Blank Check The debt ceiling was raised enough today to enable the U.S. government to pay its debts through early December. While most of us grow weary of lawmakers refusing to deal with such matters until fear mongering and last–minute theatrics have run their...

Bond Market Review – 09/29/2021

Delay of Game A drawback to financial newsletters is extended news cycles that emanate from long rounds of QE and the subsequent often–elongated taper timeline. Another is the quashing of news that is biased and even counterintuitive such as the still–lingering...

Bond Market Review – 09/10/2021

Dangerous Curves Ahead Not only was there a huge jobs miss in August, the Fed’s Beige Book noted a deceleration in growth. Even the Atlanta Fed’s GDP–Now forecast has been slipping. Their Q3 estimate had been at or above 6% through August 24th. It then fell from 3...

Bond Market Review – 09/02/2021

Summer Vacation No matter the plans or distance of any vacation, since the beginning of time the driver has heard that quintessential question: Are we there yet? In this case, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is at the helm and the destination is tapering asset purchases. Our...