Bond Market Review – 6/15/2022

Multiverse of Madness Friday was painful enough, but nearly every asset class got clobbered on Monday. Bonds had their worst 2–day drop since 1987. Stocks, bonds, gold, and silver traded lower. Bitcoin has lost another 26% since the release of Consumer Prices (CPI)....

Bond Market Review – 5/26/2022

Firestarter The Fed may be off to the races, but economic data is slowing – and Q1 GPD was just revised to a greater contraction. Q1 GDP was expected at –1.30% but was revised lower to –1.50%. Maybe that’s not overly negative, but the Price Index rose from 8.00% to...

Bond Market Review – 5/18/2022

Dazed and Confused Though the FOMC raised their funds rate with the largest hike since 2000 by a widely expected 50 bps on May 4th, investors were encouraged by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post–statement comments that increases of 75 bps were “not something that the...

Bond Market Review – 5/2/2022

The MagicalMystery Tour Changes in interest rates, inflation, stock prices, and Fed policy are not trivial. The consequences of errant policy or positioning can disrupt economies and easily lead to billions in portfolio losses for those on the wrong side of a move....

Bond Market Review – 4/11/2022

What to Dread from the Fed While Fed Chair Jerome Powell would like to keep things orderly and telegraph the expected path for rates and asset purchases, various FOMC members put the markets on edge with their comments. The long–awaited FOMC minutes were expected to...

Bond Market Review – 3/22/2022

25 or 6 to 4 After 22 years, we found a way to work in this early–Chicago song as a theme! The Fed hiked 25 bps as widely expected but then signaled 6 more to come – at each of their upcoming (and remaining) 2022 meetings. Completing that thought, lone dissenting...

Bond Market Review – 3/07/2022

Back in the U.S.S.R. The Beatles tune made it sound like a good place to visit, but for decades the Soviets had to build walls and use armed guards to keep people in. Vladimir Putin managed to wait for the Chinese Olympics to end in order to invade Ukraine in an...

Bond Market Review – 2/18/2022

Exit Pandemic – Enter Pandemonium Much of the downside of the pandemic has been reversed – though it’s still hard to understand news and interviews through masks. If you’re still writing the Year of the Ox on your checks, the Chinese Year of the Tiger...

Bond Market Review – 1/31/2022

Déjà vu – all over again From a personal perspective, January 2022 was very much like 2021. I managed to contract Covid in the early days of each month. Much like the first episode, I felt the onset of great fatigue and had to weather out the storm. Though not...

Bond Market Review – 12/31/2021

Pivots and Divots 2021 will end having seen huge pivots in the markets, Fed policy, politics, and economic recovery. The Fed finally capitulated that inflation is more permanent and finally retired the use of ‘transitory.’ They are as hawkish as they’ve been since the...